News
Sharp rise in UK asbestos claims estimates
26 January 2010
The actuarial profession's UK Asbestos Working Party has updated its
estimate of the future cost of UK asbestos-related claims to the insurance
industry. This follows its research which identified that the proportion
of people suffering from mesothelioma that subsequently make a claim for
compensation has almost doubled between 2004 and 2008.
The findings of the working party include:
- The total undiscounted cost of UK asbestos-related claims to the insurance market could be around £11 billion for the period 2009 to 2050. Of this figure, 90 per cent relates to mesothelioma and over £9 billion relates to the period 2009 to 2040, which compares to the working party's 2004 estimate for the same period of £4.7 billion.
- The proportion of mesothelioma sufferers that have made a claim for compensation has increased from around one-third in 2004 to nearly two- thirds more recently. This change, which was not expected in 2004, but has become evident in recent years, explains most of the increase in total costs.
- The working party has taken into account the Health and Safety Executive's statisticians' revised projections of the number offuture deaths from mesothelioma in Great Britain, released in 2009, in conjunction with other projection models.
Speaking on behalf of the working party, its chairman, Brian Gravelsons
said: ‘Insurers will of course have already noticed the increased number
of claims from mesothelioma sufferers, so these developments won't be a
surprise to them. However, the working party's projections will provide
the insurance industry with a consistent reference point to help it assess
its asbestos liabilities.’
‘There is still considerable uncertainty surrounding the future cost of
asbestos claims, as the number of people that will be diagnosed with
mesothelioma many years into the future cannot be accurately predicted.
The working party will continue to monitor the emerging experience and
update its projections accordingly.’
The UK Asbestos Working Party is an actuarial body which researches the
key drivers of asbestos-related claims. The current 18 members include
actuaries from insurance companies, reinsurance companies and
consultancies.
A copy of the report can be found here and the spreadsheet models here at www.actuaries.org.ukSee also our recent supplement, Asbestos Claims.
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